The Obamas Showed Democrats It’s Time to Reach Out | Opinion

To borrow an Obama-ism, let me be clear. They planned this.
Barack and Michelle Obama’s electrically brilliant speeches to the Democratic National Convention Tuesday night in Chicago were a coordinated jab–cross that perfectly met Democrats’ needs and—if the party is paying close enough attention—laid the groundwork for the strategic transition that vice president and nominee Kamala Harris absolutely must pull off in order to win.
They ended the first phase of the Harris campaign and launched the second.
Michelle was the star of the night among giddy Democrats for her eloquent mix of rhetorical flourishes, pointed critiques of former President Donald Trump’s silver-spoon privilege and golden parachute business life (“most of us will never be afforded the grace of failing forward”), and gruesome knife twists, including the night’s most excruciatingly dank line: “Who’s going to tell [Trump] that the job he’s currently seeking might just be one of those Black jobs?”
The result was a full on face-slap to the man who Democrats see as the spawn of Satan—and they were predictably rapturous. And why such a whiplash-inducing departure from her 2016 “when they go low we go high” mantra? Because that’s what her party needed. Michelle’s mission was to complete the great Democratic consolidation of 2024.
When President Joe Biden dropped out exactly one month ago, polling averages showed Trump leading Harris 45.6 percent to 41.0 percent. As of Tuesday night, Trump had dropped by about 1 percentage point. Harris had risen 6. So clearly, Harris’ growing support is mostly not coming from persuading Trump voters. Rather, it’s coming almost entirely at the expense of third-party candidate Robert F Kennedy, Jr., who has fallen four points in that time. In other words, it’s coming from consolidation: Harris has been clawing back Democratic-leaning voters who were previously drifting away from Biden.
Reclaiming the vast majority of your base—in 4 weeks, during August when voters are paying less attention, and with limited paid communications—is a minor miracle. And it was enough to give Harris the slightest of edges in election forecast models and betting markets.
The problem is that consolidation only takes you so far. In key swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia, there’s not much more that Harris can eke out of bringing wayward Democrats home. Kennedy’s support has already fallen to 4 percent or below. That’s about what Gary Johnson and Jill Stein got combined in 2016, the last time big name third-party candidates were on the ballot. There’s probably not that much further for Kennedy to fall. The other problem is that RFK Jr. is now openly mulling dropping out and throwing his support to Trump, which caused betting markets to swing back in Trump’s favor yesterday.
Firing up your base is critical—and Michelle gave it the greatest energy injection that anyone could muster—but it only gets Democrats halfway there, no better than a 50-50 shot.
Enter Barack Obama.
The former president was perfectly aware that not only was he following a supremely talented orator (“I am the only person stupid enough to speak after Michelle Obama”) but also that he had a harder job than his spouse. Because his mission last night was to begin the transition away from base motivation—i.e., firing up the folks who deep down probably wanted to be with Harris—to persuading swing voters. These are voters who pollsters have shown to be highly disengaged, badly turned off by the nastiness of today’s politics, and facing the unfamiliar prospect of supporting the first woman for president to boot.
Fortunately for Democrats, there is literally no one in history more accomplished at reassuring voters that the unfamiliar is unscary, that politics is not all anger and division, and that the Party is open-invite. That was the core of Obama’s exhilarating 2004 convention keynote, and that was the theme he sounded over and over again last night: “Together, Kamala and Tim have kept faith with America’s central story: a story that says, ‘We are all created equal.’ All of us endowed with certain inalienable rights. That everyone deserves a chance. That even when we don’t agree with each other, we can find a way to live with each other.”
Indeed, his most important message on this theme was part plea to the uncommitted, part warning to his own side: “Our politics have become so polarized these days that all of us across the political spectrum seem so quick to assume the worst in others unless they agree with us on every single issue. We start thinking that the only way to win is to scold and shame and out-yell the other side. And after a while, regular folks just tune out, or they don’t bother to vote… we need to remember that we’ve all got our blind spots and contradictions and prejudices. After all, if a parent or grandparent occasionally says something that makes us cringe, we don’t automatically assume they’re bad people. Our fellow citizens deserve the same grace we hope they’ll extend to us.”
Translation to Democrats: we can’t beat deplorables by being insufferables. Cancel the “callout” culture and keep welcoming back the white non-college-educated working voters who put Trump in the White House in the first place (Trump won them by 36 points in 2016). Translation to swing voters: we see you starting to creep back our way. So keep coming, because we will welcome you, not judge you.
The normal arc of a presidential campaign has predictable stages played out on the leisurely cadence of a baseball season: candidate intros, selecting a nominee, drawing back in the supporters of the also-rans, firing up that base, and finally, pivoting to the center for the stretch run appeal swing voters.
Last night, the Obamas hit the fast-forward button, accomplishing every single step toward the end. The final sprint begins now.
Matt Robison is a writer, podcast host, and former congressional staffer.
The views in this article are the writer’s own.